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Sunday, October 16, 2005

pit strategy to determine all


so this is it! we've finally reached the last race of the 2005 season.

unless you're a renault or mclaren supporter, the fact is this race isn't going to matter much. for the rest of the teams, it's all done for. the only other competition, apart from the obvious, is third place in the drivers championship. although i reckon montoya has that in the bag as well. michael can only hope montoya repeats that japan stunt here at shanghai.

anyways, renault took the front row of the grid. the situation definitely looks good for them. or is it?

observers will tell you that kimi has a very heavy car. the way kimi worked the car during qualifying suggested the car wasn't handling well, and during qualifying that is usually the sign of the car fully loaded with fuel. i don't believe the car which topped out the practice sessions suddenly isn't handling well, or that kimi just couldn't drive properly. hardly the cases.

therefore, renault can celebrate all they want about the front row, but the reality is that they should be shit-worried about the race. by the look of flavio after the qualifying, i suspect he was pretty concerned. they really need to come up with a flawless race plan.

when the lights go out, the mclarens are not going to lose sight of the renaults. because although the cars are heavy, they are still bloody fast. they may be harder to drive and control, but kimi will have the skill set to pull that off.

here's what i predict: kimi heavy, montoya light. montoya should get pass kimi pretty soon, and will proceed to give chase on the renaults to pressure them. kimi will drive his normal race, and just wait for the pit stops. fisichella, being slightly heavier, should block off the mclarens. this will allow alonso to pull off a significant gap in the lead. alonso needs that huge gap in order to pit and come out still ahead of the mclarens.

if renault's straight-forward plan works, then renault will win the constructor championship. else, the simple pit strategy of mclaren will rob the constructor off renault. the way i see it, mclaren has the better strategy. furthermore, if a safety car is deployed due to an accident (remember, sato and pizzonia will be racing), then mclaren will definitely win.

as much as i prefer renault winning, i would have to put the money on mclaren to win both the race and the constructor. clearly mclaren team has the elements in their hand to do so.

previous posts:
shanghai: windsor's wisdom
japan: japanese gp is the bomb
japan: rain creates havoc in japan
brazil: championship alonso's to take
spa: go back to driving school!
spa: kimi will win spa
mid-season: eddie's words of wisdom
monza: where will the pay drivers go?
monza: kimi will win monza
monza: coulthard speaks his mind
turkey: excellent new turkey experience
mid-season: greatest f1 driver
hungaro-ring: one more pole to go
hockenheim: the rain that never came
hockenheim: pessimism says it all for germany
mid-season: 2006 qualifying hopefuls
silverstone: renault vs mclaren
magny-cours: absolute beauty
indianapolis: michelin farce
indianapolis: indianapolis motor speedway
montreal: post-montreal notes
montreal: canadian gp preview
montreal: lopsided mirrors?
nurburgring: ferrari to make or break
monaco: f1 and star wars don't mix
barcelona: the era is all over
imola: from zero to hero
imola: f1 aero upgrades
bahrain: what a joke
sepang: bring out the new car!!
sepang: toyota f1 rev party
sepang: klcc sauber f1 street demo
melbourne: the wait is over!
pre-season: the viking
pre-season: nose job
pre-season: b.a.r. unveiled a goose
pre-season: sweet sauber
pre-season: evolution not revolution
pre-season: sauber ain't coming

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